If at first you don't....

My mother always told me to keep trying!

Well Cable didn't respect those Fibs but following the slightly US$ bearish GDP figures the Cable rally ran out of steam at the 88.7% region.

A Multi Point Reversal set up with a low risk sell signal and I've taken a very acceptable Friday afternoon profit at the 50% retracement.

All eyes are on the US GDP today

The Aussie performed right on cue yesterday for a very acceptable move. Different story story today with the pull back from US$ strength.

US GDP is an important number at 1.30pm, expectation is for 1.9% anything higher could well stengthen the $.

I'm looking closely for signs of renewed US$ strength (or not of course). Cable is right on three important fibs right now.

Chart of the day

Today, the Aussie $ is looking vulnerable. This may be a top formation and the rally up to the Fib followed by an almost measured move back is now looking interesting.

Is this is a one way bet?

I don't think so! Take a look at the daily chart, 2.0130 has been hit and, if today price stays in or below 2.01 region a shooting star wil have formed at a historical high and after six days running through over 500 pips.

Two fibs suggest that time symetry and also price extension are at potential turning point levels. The breakout suggests price still has a way to go on the upside but this business is all about minimising risk so I wouldn't be suprised by a stromng correction from here.

The UK fundamental scene still favours higher rates, this mornings MPC minutes of 7-2 in favour of unchanged rates at the last meeting so we are now waiting on more inflationary evidence to indicate if a May rate hike is still as inevitable as the market thinks it is.

Don't get to enthusiastic...

Great day on Friday catching the Cable and Euro mini sell off.

OK so Cable has broken above $1.90 Take a look at the monthly chart and this will be the third attempt at getting above $2.00.

Whilst it seems inevitable that $2 will be tested, there could just be a sharp sell off in this 1.90-2.00+ region, hold on to your hats, keep sensible stop losses and don't listen to the news!

Just trade what you can see with low risk entries.

No follow through for Cable

So the numbers were muted with nothing to drive the US$ either way. An MPR sell is indicated on both Cable and the Euro from these high, over extended levels.

However, US Consumer sentiment is due out at 3.00pm UK time so I'll be watching how they both react.

Euro extended

The Euro and Cable are at critical levels again. Just coming into today's US PPi figures and trade balance could see some drama...

Cable performs overnight

Good Friday's Non-Farm Payroll increase immediately caused the $US to strengthen but the move seemed muted at only around 50 pips on Cable. The follow through came on Easter Monday but only another 50 pips.

The NFP was no small increase and I would have expected more.

Overnight Cable has rallied strongly with five waves bring it back to the pre-NFP announcement. Right now it's unwinding the rally in the consolidation zone between 19600 and 19700 but I don't see Cable collapsing just yet - probably quite the opposite.

That was quite a move....

Cable has moved up in dramatic style over the last two days and, right now, is at a potential five wave top.

Take a look at the waves and you will see wave five (so far) is equal to wave one and wave three is twice that. Also coincident with the round number at 198.00 it time for me to take the days profit off the table.

Depending how the next hour or so unfolds, and with US ISM figures due in the next 20 minutes, I may have another Cable trade to place.