Which way now?

Cable moved out of its overnight consolidation to set up an MPR and followed through with a 60 pip move, of which around 40 pips were tradeable. It followed up with a hammer pushing back up to the 61.8& Fib and another 20+ tradeable pips.

Right now its locked in another range between 19520 and 19490. The range is gradually narrowing so it's wait and see time.

An another Cable MPR

These Multi Point Reversals work so well, this one links to the overnight range and a Fib.

BOE minutes today that couyld give a clue to the next rate hike - or not and Cable is anticipating the minutes will show more members of the MPC in favour last time around.

US data later so look for some bouncing today.

Cable performed nicely...

Monday afternoon and Cable set it itself for a perfect Multi Point Reversal. If I only traded one pattern it is this one! The wave count to the MPR reversal was correct and the 15 min candles formed perfectly.

The move ended this morning with repeated attempts to break the previous highs resulting in a False Break Reversal.

Mondays - I do like Mondays!!

Msot Monday and Tuesdays there is very little in the way of market moving data, consequently some very relaxed moves often take place.

This morning it's the turn of of the Kiwi. The NZD has had a good run but is now faltering at previous highs on the daily. Maybe not a dramatic mover this one but a safe but from perfectly formed multi-point revesal top on the 15min chart.

Trade management has taken some profit of the table on completion of the 'Measured Move' - see chart, with the remainder left to either stop out at break even or run to wherever another reversal forms.

More in this move?

Cable showed just how over extended it was with a powerful down move. This morning there may more to go. As I write, an engulfing candle is forming but against this, some support may exist at the 61.8% Fib so I'm looking for confirming price action around this area using the 15/5 min charts.

US figures today that have the potential to move markets are CPI and housing starts that are announced together abd then, at 3.00pm here Michigan confidence figures. All of these are market moving announcements - trying to second guess them is a gamble but often there is a second chance to get in on a bounce if the first move was signficant.

Cable waiting on retail sales

Overnight the Swissy brke down to 12355 but has rallied back to the channel. Shorts at this level are very risky so I'm waiting to see if the range trade will develop.

Cable is also very extended, 263 pips in a couple of days is quite a move. It has paused now just under previous major resistance and at a Fib level. Time suggests it is not quite ready to put in a strong correction but this morning's false upside break is maybe showing the way back down for now.

All eyes on UK retail sales figures this morning that may set the next trend going.

Range trades in a channel

After todays excitement that saw Cable bounce strongly, take a look at this possibility.

Range trades need a wide enough channel and the Swissy could be getting ready to bounce off support here. it is risky strategy because US$ strength across the board today could easily follow through making this a break out trade to the downside!

For the range play to be valid todays lows must hold of course, if so, and a more convincing reversal takes place on the hourly chart it could be worth watching closely.

Both the wave count suggest at least a pause here and the slow stochastic is stretched. Note also how stochastic divergence against price has shown the way several times vefore. Right now I'm looking for a low risk entry - if it presents itself.

Is this time for a trend change?

Yesterdays UK figures did nothing to help Cable, except push it on down in short order to a potential reversal area.

19400 contained the fall and is alos coincident with an important Fib on the daily chart plus Fib time projections clustering around yesterdays low.

The Euro is the stronger performer with a better base than Cable. Beware of US data today starting at 1.30pm with retail sales and then it's Bernancke talking at around 3.00pm - a good time to sit on the sidelines!

Twenty pips over breakfast

Cable moved neatly out its overnight range to produce just over 20 pips before it went back to where it started from! Note the time and price zone that gave a strong clue to close the trade.

This is a typical overnight breakout that often enables the trader to be positioned before the break. Also the Euro and Swissy had already made their move.

Today is UK CPI day at 9.30am, for me, I will avoid being positioned until I can see how the market reacts.

Careful, the UK trade balance is due

This morning Cable will be strongly influenced by the UK trade balance. Expected at 7bn, a divergence either way of half a bn either way could move the market substantially.

However, price is at a time, price and pattern support zone having dropped to the bottom of the 12o min chart range at 19500. Suggesting, at the very least a pause here.

Rolling over!!

The Euro trade this morning was a gift! The Fib Grid picked up that the Time was right for for a move, this coincided with a false break, the candle pattern and trend line confirmed.

Add to this the full picture with the other other majors that had started their move already and the Euro was ripe for a useful downside run.

Usually the Euro and Swissy move in lock step together, not so over the last 24 hours or so. A large divergence developed and price action this morning is in the process of unwinding the divergence.

Another useful run

Cable obliged again with a good run down that ended at an important Fib at 19536. The Fib low was followed by an excellent candle on the 120min chart to give at least 100pip profits over two days this week.

The last two days have been relatively unaffected by too much economic data but it's different today. 9.30am we have UK Industrial Production figures and US Non Farm Productivity at 1.30pm. Both these are likely to be market movers. Be ready for some spikey moves whilst the market digest these.

If the NFP data is weaker...

Gold has benefitted from the rising oil price and a growing expectancy that US interest rates are higher enough.

If todays data continues to support this view, take a look at the Aussie dollar. The daily is sitting on an important Fib line and a small base has formed. As a major Gold producer it will benefit from any further strength in Gold that in turn, has an inverse relationship with the US$

So Cable is looking stronger...

That was quite a false break to the downside and the recovery just might have further to go. But, today is Non Farm Payroll day and anything could happen this afternoon! The payroll figures will be announced togehter with the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings.

This report has often whipsawed the market in the past so it's one that I just sit on my hands and wait to see how the afternoon trend develops.

Cable is sitting on support right now so whichever way it decides to go should be a worthwhile move.