Target smashed for 120 pips!

The Euro smashed through the targets we set earlier today for a 120+ pip run that has more than paid for the holidays!

Now that both targets have been achieved we prefer to take most of our profits and hold just a small position now that consolidation or a retracement is very likely at these levels.

Cable and the Jappy

We are also postioned long on Cable (GBPUSD) and the Jappy (USDJPY). Cable has the potential to unwind some of the massive decline it went through prior to Christmas and is showing signs of strength today.

The Jappy has been powering ahead and today seems to be leaving 114.00 behind it. An alternative to going long on these individual pairs, is to buy the the GBP against the JPY. The daily chart show a large consoilidation area from which price is attempting to break free and run.

As the GBPJPY has a large daily range it has plenty of volatility to satisfy intra-day traders.

And the Euro moves on....

Our first target was rapidly reached on Christmas eve and has the potential to make a further move.

Looking ahead with the Euro

We are always on the look out for emerging trends in any time frame and the Euro put in a profitable run this morning as it pushed back up through 1.44.

The chart suggest we could see a further bounce, and, considering how far and fast the last decline was then a strong rally is very possible.

Enjoy your holidays and Santa's goodies and we wish you all the best for Christmas and a prosperous pip profiting New Year!

Pre Christmas pips

We had an excellent mornings trading during the last session before we Forex traders can switch of our screens and indulge in some Christmas delights!

The USDJPY pair that got moving last Friday, followed through this morning and rewarded us with some relatively easy pip profits.

Is there more to go? We believe there is every possibility that now the major blue resistance lines are being taken out one by one that there could be some more pips left in this run.

Down we go

Cable tried a rally this morning and then resumed it's trend as the news told us the MPC voted strongly in favour of the last rate cut, surprise, surprise.

The chart is telling us that $2.00 is now highly likely.

200+ pips...

The Euro obliged in style with the move that started out Thursday and ran another 200+ pips on Friday.

There were several low risk entries that we took along the way and the question now is, do we hang in there or take our profits?

My students know the answer to that question! - let me know what you think.

The US$ Index shows the sharpest and shortest rally of the year, showing us the US$ is not yet ready to be written off.

Taking a longer view

The Forex market can't quite make up its mind if the interest rate conundrum is good or bad for the US$. Adding $50bn of liquidity just might keep the party buzzing for a little longer.

We are taking an each way view right now and the Euro is at a potential turning point. The chart shows a classic Head & Shoulders forming and, if the lower neckline breaks, we could see the Euro re visit the 1.42 region.

Howver, these patterns are notoriously unreliable and they fail more often than they follow through, so the alternative scenario is to watch how price reacts in the region of the right shoulder. An upside break of the red line above the shoulder will suggest a test of the previous highs with the US$ bears back in charge.

Scalping Videos

When the markets have had an exciting day and you've missed the move, don't right off the late afternoon session.

As you will see there are frequently opportunities that produce some good scalping trades - take a look by clicking here

And the market wanted more...

The US interest rate statement came out with the widley expected quarter point cut but by the eaction of stock and currency markets that wasn't enough to satisfy them. A quarter point was so well discounted and a good many commentators predicted a half point cut so markets sold off.

You may think it strange to show the main US index the ES futures, that is based on the S&P500, but the USDJPY has an interesting correlation with it.

The question now is what will happen overnight and tomorrow, a bounce back or continuation of the rapid collapse. 1500 is a key number on the ES and 111.00 with the USDJPY.

Right on target

The Euro each way bet paid off today moving up strongly for a very acceptable day trade profit of almost 90 pips.

The target of 1.4733 was determined as soon as the trade was enterred, risk was minimal and a stop loss was quickly raised to become a profit stop.

Forex Traders Workshop delegates know how to find these moves and, most importantly how to manage the trade for maximum profit whilst minimising risk.

Each way bet

Currency traders are often faced with a dilema. Will it go up or go down?

The Euro vs USD is in a channel this morning and it will break either one of the blue lines. We are positioned for either eventuallity.

Cable profits for the taking

As expected Cable declined to the next support level at the 2.02 region as shown on the chart. These levels are found by a simple calculation that we use daily and teach to students.

This 2.02 level is also a key number, and now that the BOE have announced the latest mini rate cut we are taking partial profits on our short positions.

There is an old market adage 'Buy the rumour, sell the fact' the rate cut was widely expected so it came as no suprise to the market and markets need suprises to create volatile moves! Cable had already made it's move in advance as highlighted days ago.

$ Bulls in charge

Cable is weakening as the chart shows and we are looking for lower levels in the days ahead.

Aussie and Cable under pressure

Retail figures and building approvals both worse than expected put the AUDUSD pair under selling pressure overnight. The chart shows that lower levels could be seen and so we are now looking for further weekness.

Despite rallying yesterday, Cable is correcting this morning. We are watching closely for further weakness.

Dollar Strength??

Cable attempted a break out higher this morning and has now attempted a downside break.

The main pairs are indicting dollar strength today with a potential multi cent move for the USDGBP pair if it follows through.

Longer Term

We negated the GBPCHF trade as it broke the supports and is now header lower.

The bank of Japan seem to be happy with a stronger Yen and the chart shows that 115 has contained declines in the past. For now the next pause is the 108 region.

And more potential here...

We continue to monitor the British Pound VS US$ as ww believe higher levels are highly likely.

Another cross that we are now monitoring is the GBPCHF. We have identified a long term significant low that may or may not propel price higher so we are looking for today's lows at 22870 to hold and present us with a low risk entry point.

Support Zones

The USDCHF attempted to go lower but has now pushed back into the original support zone so we are looking for higher levels if it can move above 11300.

Cable has now collapsed back to a major support and Fib zone so further lows are not expected immediately, indeed we are on the lookout for a useful bounce back.

Target area reached - which one next

The USDJPY pair gave us the profit we were looking for by moving nicely into our traget area.

If the US$ strengthens further we favour the Swissy that has scope to move strongly back to retrace the dramatic moves of last week.

Alternatively, a move back below 11210 would negate the move and we would be looking for further lows.

And now is the Jappy getting ready?

Cable performed right on cue and hit our target for a very acceptable profit today.

We are now looking closely at the Japanese Yen. In recent days it has strengthened dramatically against a week US$, but we hear rumblings of discountent from Japan citing poor competitiveness, etc., as the currency strengthens.

A correction, if it gathers momentum, could well move up through a useful 100+ pips

Bounce back

The inevitable rally has now started with enough potential to run Cable back to the 20750+ region.

That was decisive...

The USDJPY pair decisively broke the 112 supports and hit the next major round number target at 110. The live room had commentary running throughout so members were able to see and understand exactly what was unfolding.

Today is Veterans Day in the US so volumes will be lighter as the day progresses but we are seeing one of the fisrt major corrections in the US$ bear run. The Euro is breaking lower supports and we are currently positioned short with a low risk trade on.

The bigger picture today shows us that Gold is retreating back from the region of the 27 year highs and Oil that was widely expected to power through $100 is taking a breather. Maybe, just maybe a sea change?

Yen due a bounce?

USDJPY was decisively resolved to the downside whilst Cable moved to new highs.

Right now 112 is the new floor as the inset daily chart show. A hammer on the hourly just might lead the bounce.

All eyes on the UK rate statement due at midday that will maybe set a continuation or retracement for Cable

Which way now

The USDJPY has run back up to the critical level of114.80. We ahve attcahed the chart showing and ascending triangle with price just under an important Fib where resistance is centred.

The next move could be either way. We are currently positioned long from 114.27, an upmove could have another go at surpassing 116 whilst a downside break would target 114 initially.

Non Farm Payrolls today

NFP day always produces uncertainty and today is no exception. Typically there are some early morning moves to be taken but then, on the run up to the figures at 12.30pm today ranges often develop.

As NFP can be one of the biggest market moving announcement in the month, many traders stay away and just observe, but we sometimes find an afternoon trend will assert itself once the figures have been digested by the market.

So that's what we are doing today, waiting to see what develops. As markets become extended and also uncertain if these levels can be sustained, volatility can increase. With the $US plumbing new lows any unexpectedly strong employment figures could trigger sharp contertrend moves.

The Swiss France has been a one way bet but note the Euro, that usually moves in an almost 80% reverse correlation has yet to make new highs.

Pragmatic close

USDYEN got to target sooner than expected, 115.91 sent price back rapidly to supports at 115.10. We took profits at 115.68 as the pair retreated through the last consolidation area.

This swing trade with intra-day add ons has given excellent profits and now we wait to see if a re-test of the highs might develop.

Follow a good run on this pair it is now wise to wait for another low risk setup to develop. When that comes only the market will show us. It could be today or in a week or two..

Yen Still on target

We have banked profits along the way by closing part as price extends and buying back in on the pullbacks.

This swing trade now looks good for the target area at around or just above 116.00 where several technicals converge, with Fib retracements, extensions and pattern prediction.

First profit target hit

The USDYEN move has just hit the 115.50 minimum targetso we recomend banking some profits.

There are several reasons to take partial profits here. The current swing up is equal in length to the first, potential wave one and these 'measured moves' frequently stop or at laest pause when at equal distance.

There is also a 50% retracement area just above 115.50 and lastly, there is a good profit that would be very upsetting if the market corrected strongly from here.

The further ,price moves then the odds of a correction rise so there is always a balance to be struck between letting profits run and pragmatically accepting that the risk of a correction is increasing.

The USDJPY forms a base

Despite many commentators telling us the yen is about to strenghten the charts show a different story may be unfolding.

We are currently looking for a decive move above 114.50 for a minimum target for Wave three of 115.50. However a move below 114.00 negates the move for today.

The Jappy makes a move

The USDJPY pair is now looking interesting again.

The key to this move is rising above 116 this morning and for the move to be sustained towards the 118 target area. I don't want to see too much of a retreat below 116 or this could be just extended the current rading range.

And the $ gains ground

The Euro, Cable and Swissy are all weaker this am against the US$ with convincing looking bases that could see much further strength as the day progresses.

The Jappy is not taking part yet as the carry trade fall out continues to unwind.

Non Farm Payrolls

Back from hols and it's now September so volumes will be picking up and the excitement starts today with the Sept NFP numbers.

Right now the Yen is hovering at 115, a major support level and Cable needs to move above 20212 to break the last swing high and push towards 203. Euro looks strong today following the overnight measured move.

The Euro looks interesting

Yesterday's Swissy trade worked nicely, it took all day to get going and the final overnight move gave some icing on the cake to the remaining part of the position held overnight.

Today the Euro is in bounce mode with plenty of potential to start a useful retracement as it moves out of the overnight range.

Further and faster

Is a typical reaction to changed market perceptions. How long ago was it (not a week ago) that almost every comentator and his dog had their readers convinced of the US$ collapse - and then the market overshot on the downside and now seems to have done the same thing in reverse!

The snap back didn't happen yesterday but it could be different today, the Swissy chart shows a low risk trade that might unfold.

UK Retail Sales at 9.30am and US Housing Starts at 1.30pm might catch/help the scalpers today.

A long in a short time..

The US Dollar is on a major charge and, as with any rampant Bull, it's not a good idea to stand in his way! That said even Bulls have to take breather now and then and any snap back from these extended moves could be swift.

The trick is catching them at the right moment so the trade is low risk. My snap back trade of choice may be the Swissy but only if it puts in a convincing short term top.

Beware of a raft of data today, 9.30am MPC minutes & Av earnings and 1.30pm US CPI+

The main pairs

The biases this morning are for US Dollar strength but wait for pullbacks from break outs on your favourite pair.

Numbers today are 9.30am UK PPI and US Retaisl Sales at 1.30pm

The $ bulls are charging...

The bias today is US$ strength following the Cable collapse yesterday. The hourly charts here show a Cable potential head & shoulders. Will the Euro start to weaken is the next big question, it has failed to break out to new daily highs so is vulverable to follow Cable down.

Non Farm Productivity and interest statements due from US and then Australia later.

It's NFP day

The first Friday of the month brings us a potential adrenalin rush day with the Non Farm Payroll figures due at 1.30pm.

Those who like calm and relaxed trading take the day off but after the figures, that so often whipsaw the majors, a useful trend often develops. However, the daily charts show that maybe there are still some major moves ahead now the US$ has consolidated follow its strenth last week.

The Overnight range

UK interest statement is the main news event today at noon UK time. This morning we are waiting on recations within and maybe breakouts from the overnight range.

Cable is looking more likely to break out up than down right now with that large engulfing candle from 6.00am.

Trade of the day

Phil Newtons new live room got off to an early start today but Cable had made most of its move during the Asian session. However the day got moving later and Phils educational content was great - we have one or two more places now available as room capacity has been increased.

On to the Jappy. Take a look at the chart, it combines a superb MPR (Multi-Point Reversal) with an oversold market on the dailies and then - just for fun - the Gravity Bar and Color charts provide the trade managenment. Buy on blue, sell on red.

Get the full story on how to trade this 60+ pip move next Wednesday at the Day Trading workshop in London. Call or email for details of either the course, or how to trade this setup.

Overnight

Overnight and yesterday's action has left completed measured move rallies for the Euro and Cable so the move out of the range could be decisive.

I'm looking closely at the Swissy and Jappy as they start to move from this current consolidation.

Quite a move

The Cable chart here shows just how fast the downmove has been from the original signal on the 25th. Those who got on the move early Friday will be very pleased.

It's amazing how, after the event, pundits are calling the Dollar long now as if they had known all along. Today could be a consolidation day but I'm looking top see what the Yen will do following the Japanese elections.

Corrections today

After the excitement yesterday I'm watching for low risk corrections against yesterday's moves.

US Durable Goods Orders at 1.30pm and then New Home Sales at 3.00pm have market moving potential later today.

The bigger picture

Early risers will have got their longs in place to ride the US$ rally that kicked off at 7.00am this morning.

The daily charts show how extended the dollar short selling has been, and consequently, just how far this rally could run. As always take some profits along the way and never let a profit become a loss.

An MPR on the Jappy

There are exceptions to every rule and trades have to be taken on their merits so I've traded the Jappy long this morning despite the daily downtrend. The Multi Point Reversal at the possible end of a five wave decline on the daily got my interest.

Will or it or won't it play out to the target shown here? I have no idea except that it is a low risk trade and I have my stops to BE.

Trade with the trend

Cable continues its relentless rise this morning as the US$ shows no signs of strength.

The temptation is to look for reversals in the trend but a strategy of fighting the dominant trend seldom works out. However, traders need to be flexible and just take the signals that are given.

False break reversals

The early morning break outs for the Euro and Swiss have now reversed and Cable is back into the overnight range. These rapid reversals, or FBR's provide some amazing opportunites as the reversal usual catches the majority of players by suprise.

If this reversal follows through both the Swissy and Jappy have plenty of potential to unwind.

UK GDP figures at 9.30am today.

And the trend continues?

The charts this morning suggest the $US will continue its slide. Waiting now for decisive moves through the overnight ranges to confirm. The Dollar Index shows no immediate signs of reversal but it is very extended and in the region of lows going back to '95.

UK retail sales figures out at 9.30am this morning will closely watched as wil comments from Bernanke at 2.30pm.

Wed am

As the chart shows the morning move has been very civilised so far! Both the Swissy and Jappy rected smothly from the overnight range floor here allowing students of the MPR to put on low risk trades.

Thre further the US$ falls the more volatile it will become so corrections (that may become reversals) from the main trend will become more tradeable.

Day traders will be watching for UK reactions to the MPC minutes and Average Earnings index at 9.30am followed by CAD CPI and US Core CPI at 1.30pm. Then at 3.00pm Bernanke speaks!

Jappy & Swissy

The Euro sold off as Cable rallied strongly on the back of UK inflation numbers. Whilst the Swissy was the best performer out of the overnight range.

This was followed by a very clear take profit and reverse signal that also flagged up on the Jappy.

Midday update

The Kiwi trade from Aspen is working nicely and the main, dominant trend has reasserted itself with the continued US$ weakness.

We had some useful counter trend trades in Cable and the Euro earlier but I am now waiting to see how the market reacts to the 1.30pm Business Conditions Index following its fall last month.

Cable, Euro and Swissy have stopped their bull run for now and any increase in the index could see US$ strength.

Monday 16th July

Overnight ranges defined suggest continued US$ weakness is pausing with several opportunities here against that dominant trend.

CAD

This morning, after a some false breakouts from the overnight range, I'm looking at this potential saucer bottom on the USDCAD pair.

A double bottom on the daily shows just how far and fast the CAD has strengthened on the back of a strong economy helped by rising oil prices. This one has potential and I've placed a low risk trade that just may follow through.

Eco data today are Core US Reatil Sales at 1.30pm followed by the important Consumer Sentiment Index at 3.00pm. Both have the ability to substantially move the market so take care trading during those times.

Swissy reverses

The 1.30pm numbers were at first greated with a bear move on the US$, that rapidly reversed and the over sold $ could now be unwinding.

The earlier Swissy position is now reversed at 1.2022. The first trigger was the trend line break followed by a break of point 2 of the 1-2-3. Second chance to get in came with the pullback to 1.2020 and there may well be more low risk opportunities to come.

Overnight ranges

The range breakouts for Euro, Swissy and Jappy followed look set to continue so far this morning but Cable is not joining in. The Euro left a shooting star on the daily chart that might cause a falter as price approaches yesterdays high.

Main eco numbers out later are for the CAD and NZD.