And the last trading day this year obliges...

I'm back from the snows and slopes of Steamboat Colorado, and body is still intact despite some spectacular tumbles!

I don't usually like to trade these thin holiday markets but today was too good to miss. I awoke late today, shaking off jet lag, and missed the Cable move one. But both Fib Grid and candle picked the sell point.

The second move set up nicely with Fib, candles and a tidy MPR showing the way with profits taken at the Fib line and end of the momentum move.

Move three was taken on the run with a close stop following the inside candle. Part profits taken at '81 following the hammer. The remainder, well I'll just let it run with a stop profit at '06.

Swissy makes its move...

The Swissy has been setting up for almost two weeks now and, today, it's making a move in line with general US$ strength.

Of the big four, the Swissy is the one to watch. As the chart shows, the Fib Grid picked up the neckline, and, as I write, price is nudging through.

Will it or won't it? That's the question and as it has already moved strongly from a tradeable base, there may be a pull back before making the major break if indeed it works out.

NFP Day comes around!!

Today Non Farm Payrolls dominate the mood, there is an expectation the figures will be good for the US$ and the majors seem poised for take off against the US$, so watch carefully and look for any revisions of previous figures that could cloud the headline figure.

Am I just old and cynical but are the revisions, adjustments and incorrect addition on these figures engineered to steer the US$ where the Fed wants it to go?? How could this possibly be I hear you saying!!!

The £$ has been a one way bet since the press told us to expect a $2 pound. The trend, defined here by the moving averages, has produced some good tradeable moves so far.

Expect some major spikes at 1.30pm today and a sustained move either way if the figures stray beyond expectations.

The tide has turned!

Cable developed a highly tradable pattern this morning with Fib retracement giving an excellent entry.

Disapointing UK figures out at 9.30am helped it only although the move was well underway before the announcement!

And the correction kicks in...

Well these two continuation trends didn't last long!

The Yen reversed rapidly on the 3.00pm figures and the CAD set up a reversal bottom getting out with half profits.

Maybe the overdue correction to the US$'s weakness is now working through.

My two trades of the day...

The pound chopped around yesterday and close stops avoided any damage. The Yen counter trade stopped out for a modest profit but this morning....

The Yen has resumed its main trend heading now for the next big support area around 11400.

Take a look at the CAD- if that's not a top! with a tiny pull back to the Fib and with time symetry I'm riding this one 'till there's a reversal.

Difficult week with figures and interest rate statements throughout the week with the big one on Friday - visit www.forexfactory.com for the announcements, timing and consensus opinions. My trading plan doesn't allow me to trade through figures unless it is a very small position so do take great care!!

Maybe today is time for contra think....

Well the Yen counter trade is doing well this morning with the rally extending nicely, I'm short until I get a reversal single.

Just when news programmes, the press and several guru's are telling us the pound will hit $2.00 this week, it seems to be pausing for breath this morning after it's collapse of the last couple of weeks. When everyone is bearish, I'm programmed to look for bullish moves and vice versa!

A bounce up to a Fib set up a lower high with several other shorting opportunities so far - how far will it go, I have no idea, but the Fib grid is making some suggestions! This is a playful market so I'm watching for momentum surges either way.

BTW, chatting with mother-in-law over the weekend, telling me about being evacuated to New York at the start of the second world war - she got an exchange rate for her pounds of $5!!

An easy, low risk, counter trend move

The Yen took a breather late Friday with what, at the moment, is an a-b-c rally. It was a low risk piplet trade, nothing amazing in terms of result but minimal risk from an oversold market probing the previous supports for resistance.

Modest profits taken at close of play Friday with a small psotion held over just in case the rally has got some more to go.

Yen breaks important supports today

11550 has been strongly defended for the last week, it's an area with multiple Fibs and, today, it was sliced through despite BOJ economic figures released over night.

I'm now expecting the previous supports to become resistance that just might push price on down to the next major support area.

Up, up and away - again!!

By several measures this latest $US weakness is looking extended, corrections could be violent!

The monthly chart picks up the old highs at around $2.00 and with wave counts, pattern predictions and Fib extensions all suggesting a correction at around these levels is highly likely. That said, trading with the dominant trend is the only way to play, but be prepared to take profits before a correction takes them back.